Nitish or New CM in Bihar in 2025: Exploring Possibilities

JDU (Janata Dal United) in Bihar is promoting the slogan “2025 to 2030, Nitish Again”. The BJP in Bihar is also saying, “2025, Nitish Again”. However, BJP’s national level leader is Amit Shah. He is the Union Home Minister and is on a different track from his own state leaders. 

Six months ago, Amit Shah had said that the decision on CM will be taken by the parliamentary board. Now he is saying that only time will tell who will be the CM. He has avoided clearly saying that Nitish Kumar will be elected CM again.

Nitish has not said anything on this issue yet. If Dilip Jaiswal, the commander of BJP in Bihar, is to be believed, in 2025, Nitish is the CM. But is it certain that he will be the CM till 2030, as is the wish of JDU?

Since Amit Shah is very high up the political ladder, his statements are more credible. According to him, only the circumstances can tell if Nitish Kumar will again claim the title of Chief Minister. Secondly, even if the circumstances are in his favour, someone from BJP might still become CM. This possibility cannot be ruled out, given his age and health.

The BJP might be aware of a weakness of Nitish. This could force him to give up the head post. They may not be revealing it due to potential losses in the election.

NDA’s Luv-Kush Equation

Bihar CM Nitish Kumar and Deputy CM Samrat Chaudhary have become symbols of the Luv-Kush equation while popularising votes. The “Luv-Kush equation” refers to the political alliance between the Kurmi and Koeri castes.  The exposure that Samrat Chaudhary is getting in PM Narendra Modi’s rallies in Bihar attracts the voters of Kushwaha community. 

The magic of the Luv-Kush equation has been visible since 2005. Due to this partnership, the parties’ power was immense in 2010. Out of the total 243 assembly seats, 206 were won by these two parties (JDU 115 and BJP 91). RJD chief Lalu Yadav has also understood the importance of the Luv-Kush equation. He has also started trying to break Kush i.e. Kushwaha voters.

What has changed since 2010?

The circumstances for this poll are different. Today, BJP is not dependent upon JDU for their presence in the state of Bihar. In the 2020 elections, BJP had overpowered JDU. BJP is the largest party in the assembly right now. The second big difference is seen regarding Nitish becoming the CM. No one can assure that Nitish will become the CM again. Additionally, they cannot ensure he will remain the CM for the next 5 years.

Speculations about a CM from BJP

The Mahagathbandhan began its efforts to penetrate the Kushwaha vote bank during the Lok Sabha elections. RJD and other parties of the Mahagathbandhan gave tickets to many Kushwaha candidates. RJD chief Lalu Yadav has been giving importance to his family. He nominated Abhay Kushwaha as the leader in the Lok Sabha. This time, the pomp with which RJD has included Renu Kushwaha and many other leaders is notable. It seems that the Mahagathbandhan’s focus will be on Kushwaha candidates in the assembly elections as well.

BJP has put Samrat Choudhary in the front among its two deputy CMs for several reasons. This can be seen as one of them. Samrat Choudhary speaks in the Prime Minister’s meetings. However, the other deputy CM Vijay Kumar Sinha does not get a chance. On the death anniversary of Sahajanand, JDU’s big leader Vijay Choudhary spoke. He made it clear that Samrat is in the second position in the government. Now, it is to be seen if he is aiming for the head post as well.

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