Bypoll Victory for INDI Alliance spells disappointment for Congress

On Monday, the Election Commission of India (ECI) announced the results. These results were for five assembly bypolls held on 19th June. These were held across four states – Punjab, Gujarat, West Bengal and Kerala. Out of these, the ruling party of BJP could hoist its saffron flag on just one seat. It retained its seat of Kadi in Gujarat. Meanwhile, INDI Alliance captured four seats. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) won two seats: the Ludhiana seat in Punjab and the Visavadar seat in Gujarat. Congress (INC) won the Nilambur seat of Kerala and Trinamool Congress (TMC).

Even though the INDI Alliance came out better than the BJP, this election is a stark reminder. The current odds are not in its favour. It has long deviated from its objective of a collective fight against BJP. Instead, the members are now fighting among themselves and hurting themselves.

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The Results

• In Nilambur (Kerala), Congress candidate Aryadan Shoukath defeated CPI(M) leader M Swaraj by over 11077 votes.
• In Visavadar (Gujarat), former AAP state president Gopal Italia won with a margin of 17554 votes. He defeated BJP candidate Kirit Patel. Congress’ Nitin Ranpariya finished third with 5,501 votes. In Kadi, Gujarat, BJP candidate Rajendra Chavda retained the seat for the party. He defeated Congress’ Ramesh Chavda with a margin of 39452 votes.
• In Ludhiana West (Punjab), AAP’s Sanjeev Arora defeated Congress candidate Bharat Bhushan Ashu by 10637 votes.
• In Kaliganj (West Bengal), TMC candidate Alifa Ahmed defeated BJP’S Ashish Ghosh by a decisive margin of 50049 votes.

Weakening Congress performance

Even though the Congress won Nilambur, its performance has been disappointing. This victory can not be fully credited to INC. The TMC intervened here through its supported candidate PV Anwar. Anwar got about 19,000 votes. This cut into the vote bank of the Left Democratic Front (LDF). It indirectly benefited the Congress.

This is not a good sign for Congress. TMC’s increasing presence can cause problems for Congress in the future.

The Kadi seat of Gujarat is reserved for Scheduled Castes. Congress should have been a stronger competitor here. Its main leader, Rahul Gandhi, has been focusing his campaign on Dalit-OBC votes. Rahul Gandhi presented a roadmap for ‘Congress ki wapsi’ in Gujarat just a few months ago. He said that the party will defeat BJP in the 2027 elections. Yet, Congress lost from a margin of 40,000 votes in the bypolls.

Sour relations of AAP and INC

On the other hand, AAP defeated Congress in both Punjab and Gujarat for the seats of Ludhiana and  Visavadar respectively. This defeat is particularly embarrassing for Congress. It had presented Ludhiana West as a “referendum” against the government of Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann.

Winning Visavadar for the second time is a big victory for AAP. This victory is in a state dominated by BJP. Visavadar is also a seat which had been a Congress bastion. The saffron party has not won this seat in the last 18 years. AAP had secured over 10% votes in its very first election and continued its spirited campaign to secure victory.
AAP and Congress have had bitter relations ever since Congress decided to contest all 70 seats in Delhi assembly elections. Aam Aadmi Party continues to impact Congress vote banks. It claims to be a strong opposition to the BJP, especially in Punjab, Delhi, and Gujarat.

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TMC retains the crown of Bengal
Trinamool Congress won the Kaliganj seat of West Bengal quite comfortably. But the TMC also views Congress as competition and not an ally. TMC, however, is confident that the real competition is not the Congress-Left alliance but the Bharatiya Janata Party.

Overall, INDI Alliance is not the picture of unity. There is no consensus on seat sharing or leadership. Congress, which considered itself the backbone of the alliance, has earned more mistrust of its allies than confidence. Congress’s strategy, organisation and leadership are consistently leading to weaker performance, arousing the need for change. Otherwise, the party is only accelerating its own downfall.