New Delhi, June 3, 2025: There is growing noise from Pakistan over a potential Chinese water blockade. Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma used social media to counter a scare narrative. He called it a “manufactured” issue around the Brahmaputra river. He asserted that India’s water security remains robust, with or without China’s cooperation.
“Even if China tries to restrict the Brahmaputra’s flow, it won’t cripple us,” Sarma wrote. “Because the river doesn’t shrink in India — it grows.”
Brahmaputra: A Predominantly Indian River System
Sarma laid out data highlighting an important fact. Contrary to the perception, the Brahmaputra’s dependence on Chinese water sources is limited. Only 30–35% of the river’s flow originates in Tibet. A significant portion, 65–70%, is generated within India. This occurs through intense monsoon rains and a complex network of tributaries in Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, and surrounding states.
At the border point in Tuting, the river’s flow ranges from 2,000 to 3,000 cubic metres per second. By the time it reaches Guwahati, during monsoons, it swells to 15,000–20,000 m³/s. This increase is thanks to rainfall-fed tributaries like Subansiri, Lohit, Manas, Kameng, and others.
No Strategic Leverage for China
China controls the upper reaches of the river in Tibet, where it is known as the Yarlung Tsangpo. Sarma emphasized that Beijing has not officially threatened or taken any hostile stance on the river’s flow toward India. He added that a reduction in flow might paradoxically help India. It could alleviate the annual flood disasters that wreak havoc across Assam during the monsoon.
Pakistan’s Anxiety Post-Indus Treaty Fallout
The statement comes in response to recent remarks by Pakistani commentators. They warned that India could face retaliation from China after walking away from the Indus Waters Treaty. This move has unsettled Pakistan, which has enjoyed favorable terms for over seven decades.
Sarma dismissed these claims as “panic-driven projections.” He said they reflect a lack of understanding about India’s geographical realities. They also show ignorance of India’s hydrological and strategic realities.
Also read: Pakistan Faces Crop-Sowing Crisis Amid Low Dam Levels and Restricted Chenab Flows
A River Fed by Rain, Not Fear
Calling the Brahmaputra a “rain-fed river system powered by Indian geography”, Sarma urged Indians to see through fear-based speculation. He emphasized that India’s command over the Brahmaputra lies in its climate. It also depends on its terrain and resilience. It does not depend on what China may or may not do.
“The Brahmaputra isn’t a river we rely on upstream. It becomes powerful only after it enters India. Let’s not fall for alarmist propaganda,” he concluded.
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