SWOT Analysis of Delhi Assembly Elections: AAP, BJP, and Congress

Delhi Assembly poll campaign is in full swing. Stalwarts from BJP, AAP, and Congress are putting all their efforts to win the voters’ hearts. Delhi Assembly elections are scheduled to be held on February 5. They are more interesting than ever. Delhi sees a triangular battle between AAP, BJP, and Congress.

While AAP is looking to score a hat-trick, the BJP is aiming to unseat the Arvind Kejriwal-led party from power. On the other hand, the Congress is attempting to regain the control it once had on Delhi. It has high hopes for the elections this time.

As the poll day approaches soon, we conduct a SWOT analysis. We assess the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats of the three big parties in the political battle.

Aam Admi Party (AAP)

Strengths: With Arvind Kejriwal as its chief ministerial candidate, the AAP holds significant strengths. Kejriwal is undoubtedly one of the most prominent political figures in Delhi. He has maintained power for a decade. This is largely due to popular schemes like power, water, and bus subsidies. These schemes resonate well with the voters. These initiatives have undeniably fortified the AAP’s rapport with the urban population, strengthening its governance narrative.

Weaknesses: Allegations of corruption have tainted the AAP’s leadership, particularly about the excise policy. Local discontent has also surged due to unpopular MLAs, necessitating a massive overhaul in candidate choice. The party’s failure to meet several critical promises clouds its achievements. These promises include cleaning the Yamuna, ensuring adequate water supply, and improving sanitation and infrastructure. Moreover, there is a notable deficiency in investment about both urban and rural infrastructure, which remains a point of contention. The CM’s grand residence is often termed as Sheeshmahal. This has brought much unpopularity for Arvind Kejriwal. Once, he claimed to be a common man’s leader. Just a few days before the assembly election polls, eight MLAs of the Ahmed party resigned from the primary membership. They resigned due to discontent and lost trust with Ahmed party, Convenor, Arvind Kejriwal, and others.

Opportunities: Despite these challenges, the AAP has significant opportunities. The opposition is burdened by weak leadership choices. This includes the Congress and the BJP. With this scenario, the AAP has a plausible path to securing a third consecutive term. Such a victory would enhance its standing as a formidable local force. It would also strengthen its position as an emerging national opposition. The party has managed to keep the BJP at bay in Delhi. This is despite its repeated victories in the Lok Sabha elections.

Threats: Corruption charges could weaken AAP’s credibility. Controversies are a serious risk to its image. These include the alleged extravagant renovations of Chief Minister’s residence during Arvind Kejriwal’s tenure. If the Congress and the BJP succeed in challenging Kejriwal’s integrity, it significantly curbs his influence in national politics. Leaders like Swati Maliwal once were insiders. They later left the Aam Aadmi party amid controversies. These leaders are also a big threat to the party.

Bhatiya Janta Party

Strengths: The BJP plans to mirror the strategy used in the Assembly elections in Haryana. They also plan to use the same strategy in Maharashtra to win the polls in Delhi. The support from chief ministers of various states and the strong backing of the Sangh Parivar strengthens their base further. The party promises not to stop the existing schemes. Additionally, new welfare schemes like direct benefits to women of ₹2500 will strengthen the party.

Weaknesses: Historically, the BJP has struggled to create itself as a possible local choice in Delhi for over 25 years. One of the critical reasons behind this is the lack of inspiring local leadership, leading to internal factionalism. The BJP finds it challenging to effectively counter Arvind Kejriwal’s aggressive and charismatic campaign strategies. These strategies keep the AAP in a beneficial position.

Opportunities: Recent victories in Haryana and Maharashtra have instilled confidence. The BJP believes it can overturn the odds against a favoured opponent like the AAP. Corruption allegations weigh down Kejriwal’s party. The possibility of a stronger Congress could split the AAP vote bank. The BJP sees an opportunity to seize control in Delhi. Winning would conclude a 32-year dry spell since 1993, marking a significant political milestone.

Threats: Failure to win again significantly weaken the BJP’s position in Delhi. This would damage the image of the country’s largest political party. Such an outcome harm the central leadership’s strategy. They depend on PM Modi’s influence without showcasing a local CM face.

CONGRESS

Strengths: Despite setbacks in recent Assembly elections, Congress still boasts a roster of prominent leaders. Many of these leaders were once influential figures with strong mass appeal. The party has also begun regaining traction among key demographics, particularly Muslims and Dalits. This resurgence can be attributed, in part, to central leaders like Rahul Gandhi. Rahul Gandhi has been holding multiple rallies in different parts of Delhi. He makes sharp attacks against Arvind Kejriwal and Aam Aadmi party. Priyanka Gandhi has also joined Rahul Gandhi for the Delhi election campaigns.

Weaknesses: The Congress’s organisational framework has significantly deteriorated. Having ruled Delhi for 15 years, the Congress now finds its state leadership a shadow of its former self. Compared to rivals like the AAP and the BJP, the Congress struggled to generate momentum initially. Its presence in most constituencies is negligible. former chief minister of Delhi, Sheila Dixit‘s Goodwill can be a good positive factor for the Congress party.

Opportunities: In past assembly elections, Congress received less than 5 per cent votes. They won zero seats in 2020 and 2015. Thus, Congress has little to lose and much to gain. Anti-incumbency sentiments against the AAP government in Delhi offer an opportunity to reclaim ground. Added to this is the dissatisfaction with the BJP at the national level. By strategically targeting minority and the Dalit voters, Congress can rebuild its support base.

Threats: The Congress has faced significant setbacks in the recent elections. This includes the Municipal Corporation of Delhi (MCD) elections. It also involves other Assembly polls. Its last notable success was in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections. Another major defeat drive the party to rock bottom, making it nearly impossible for it to rise up.