NEW DELHI: Pakistan is confronting a severe agricultural crisis. Water levels at its major reservoirs are plummeting. Inflows from the Chenab River are declining. This follows India’s tightening of water release in response to the Pahalgam terror attack. The disruption threatens to derail the country’s kharif (summer) sowing season, which is critical for food production and economic stability.
Major Dams at Critical Low Levels
The Mangla Dam on the Jhelum River holds far less water than required. Similarly, the Tarbela Dam on the Indus also holds insufficient water. Publicly available data shows:
- Mangla is filled to less than 50% of its capacity (2.7 million acre-feet out of 5.9 MAF).
- Tarbela has slightly over 50% of its live storage (6 MAF out of 11.6 MAF).
These reservoirs are vital for irrigation in Punjab and Sindh provinces and also for hydropower generation.
Also read: India’s Water Offensive: How Suspending the Indus Waters Treaty Could Impact Pakistan
21% Water Flow Deficit Declared by IRSA
The Indus River System Authority (IRSA) has declared an overall 21% shortage in water flow. They expressed serious concern over the “sudden decrease” in Chenab River inflows at Marala. It is attributed to “short supply by India.” The shortage is expected to worsen the situation during early kharif sowing.
IRSA has advised all relevant authorities to use available reservoir water judiciously. They warned that the “crisis created by Indian short supplies in the Chenab River” could significantly hamper Pakistan’s sowing operations.
India Regulates Chenab Flow Post-Pahalgam Attack
The water crunch occurs after the Pahalgam terror attack. This attack led India to suspend parts of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT). India has since regulated water flow from its side and stopped sharing real-time water data with Pakistan.
India has only flushed sediment and released stored water from its Baglihar and Salal reservoirs on the Chenab. However, the restriction on fresh flows has begun to affect Pakistan’s water availability.
Pakistan Raises Alarm on Global Platform
Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif raised the issue at a recent glacier preservation conference in Dushanbe, Tajikistan. He highlighted India’s unilateral suspension of the IWT. He also sought international attention on the matter.
Monsoon Could Offer Temporary Relief
Officials hope that monsoon rainfall, expected to begin in July, may help restore reservoir levels. However, early-season sowing activities in May and June are already under strain. Any significant recovery now depends on India’s further regulation of water flows and how it manages its own 3.6 MAF permissible storage capacity on western rivers.
Flood Management May Also Be Impacted
The IWT suspension could also make flood management difficult for Pakistan. This is because India controls large parts of the upper catchment area of the Indus River system. Without real-time water flow data, Pakistan’s capacity to anticipate and mitigate floods will be compromised during the peak monsoon season.
Indus River System: A Lifeline at Risk
Pakistan’s irrigation network in Punjab and Sindh relies heavily on the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab rivers. These are categorized as western rivers under the IWT. India has exclusive rights over the eastern rivers (Ravi, Sutlej, and Beas). However, limited infrastructure on the Indian side has historically allowed Pakistan to benefit from them.
While India is entitled to store up to 3.6 MAF on western rivers under the treaty, it has yet to fully capitalize on this, inadvertently benefiting Pakistan. The current shift, however, signals a potential long-term change in this dynamic.
Dam reserves are running dangerously low. Additionally, India is tightening the Chenab’s flow. As a result, Pakistan is likely to face a challenging summer cropping season. Diplomatic tension, treaty suspension, and climate variability have compounded effects. These factors place the nation’s food security at significant risk. A resolution or cooperative water-sharing mechanism must be re-established soon.
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