Pakistan and China are in advanced talks for establishing a new regional forum to replace SAARC. The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) has been dysfunctional for a long time. This is another attempt at shaping South Asian geopolitical relations and reducing India’s central presence.
A trilateral meeting with Bangladesh was held in China’s Kunming on June 19. Another meeting with Afghanistan was held in May. Both meetings had related objectives.
Also read: Pakistan Responds to India’s Latest Measures Amid Rising Tensions
The Proposal
Pakistan’s Express Tribune stated that the idea is to bring together all former members of SAARC. These members are Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, the Maldives, Nepal, Bhutan and Afghanistan. They aim to form an alternative organisation. This new regional organisation will have new leadership too. China will play a key role and India will be relegated to the periphery.
Aims of New Bloc
According to a report in Pakistan’s Express Tribune, discussions between Beijing and Islamabad have moved forward significantly in recent months. Both sides express that a new platform is needed for promoting regional stability. SAARC has been paralysed due to the India-Pakistan conflict. A new platform will promote regional integration, connectivity, and trade.
The themes of improving regional trade corridors, infrastructure connectivity, and economic cooperation align with China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Pakistan is already a part of BRI through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
Bangladesh’s Involvement
A recent trilateral meeting took place in Kunming between China, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. It was described as part of the diplomatic groundwork for this initiative. While Bangladesh publicly denied that any alliance was in the making, calling the meeting “not political”. Yet, the move has raised speculations in South Asian nations, including New Delhi.
“We are not forming any alliance,” Dhaka’s foreign affairs adviser M Touhid Hossain said. Karachi-based The Express Tribune reported, “The ultimate goal of the meeting in Kunming on June 19 was to invite other South Asian countries. These countries were part of Saarc and were encouraged to join the new grouping.”
Who is Invited?
According to diplomatic sources, an official invitation will be extended to India as well to join the new regional bloc. However, chances are high that India will decline, given the bloc’s alignment with China and Pakistan’s strategic priorities. The gesture will be diplomatic, if carried forth.
Countries like Sri Lanka, Maldives, and Afghanistan might be more amenable to the new bloc. This is especially true if it offers economic incentives or infrastructure support.
India’s Ties with Neighbours
It is clear that India’s relationships with its neighbours have soured over the past few months. The conflict with Pakistan escalated again in April-May. Relationships with Bangladesh have taken a turn for the worse after the ouster of Sheikh Hasina. China is always pushing to become a global power. It is indifferent to the expense it may cause to India. China has supported Pakistan throughout its military aggression with India. It has also had a history of hostile engagements with India.
In this context, the trio of Pakistan, Bangladesh and China are reportedly trying to establish a new regional bloc. The aim is to replace SAARC as well as corner India.
SAARC’s Failure
SAARC was founded on 8th December, 1985 with similar objectives, but with India as a central party. As the largest member, India significantly contributed to Saarc by providing substantial funding. It also spearheaded initiatives like the Saarc Development Fund. The South Asian University in New Delhi was established to promote education and economic cooperation among member states. But Pakistan had used its veto to block many SAARC initiatives for trade protocols and anti-terrorism mechanisms. It hampered the functioning of the group, blaming it on India for its “domineering approach.”
For example, Pakistan vetoed the Saarc Motor Vehicles Agreement during the 2014 Saarc Summit in Kathmandu. It blocked the proposed framework for cross-border movement of passenger and cargo vehicles among member states. This obstruction by Pakistan led India, Bangladesh, Bhutan, and Nepal to pursue the sub-regional BBIN Motor Vehicles Agreement in 2015. Cooperation between Nepal, Bhutan and India progressed under SAARC in sectors like infrastructure capacity building, disaster management and renewable energy.
The last SAARC summit was held in 2014 in Kathmandu and the organisation has been dormant ever since. The 2016 summit was scheduled to be held in Islamabad. However, it was cancelled after the Uri attacks. The responsive surgical strikes by India against Pakistani terror groups also contributed to its cancellation. SAARC has increasingly lost relevance, mainly due to the India-Pak conflict.
India has increasingly turned to other platforms like BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation). This platform excludes Pakistan. It is used to engage with India’s eastern neighbours. Meanwhile, Pakistan has deepened its ties with China to counter Indian influence.
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