The entire political landscape of Bihar is active ahead of the assembly elections 2025. In Bihar, Hyderabad MP Asaduddin Owaisi leads the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM). The party made a formal offer to join the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)-led grand alliance. However, RJD has rejected the proposal.
AIMIM’s Bihar state president and MLA Akhtarul Iman wrote a letter to RJD supremo Lalu Prasad Yadav. He demanded inclusion in the alliance to ‘prevent the scattering of secular votes’. But RJD rejected the offer with a condition. It said that to keep the secular votes united, AIMIM must refrain from fielding candidates in the Bihar assembly elections. AIMIM should support the grand alliance.
AIMIM Made a Dent in 2020 Elections
In Bihar elections 2020, AIMIM contested 20 seats in Seemanchal region. They won five seats. This was a clear indication of making a dent in the traditional Muslim-Yadav vote bank of Lalu Yadav’s RJD. Later, four MLAs led by Tejashwi Yadav left AIMIM to join RJD. Regardless, AIMIM established it’s presence in in Seemanchal.
Also read: Who Will Be Bihar’s Next Chief Minister? C-Voter Survey Reveals Surprising Trends
Objective of AIMIM’s offer
This time AIMIM’s strategy seems to be twofold. Firstly, it can become a part of the grand alliance. By doing so, it can join hands with Congress and RJD. This collaboration aims to defeat NDA. Joining a bigger political alliance will come with its benefits.
But secondly, even if the alliance does not happen, AIMIM can use this rejection. They can convince Muslim voters that RJD sidelined their party. This can attract Muslim votes more strongly.
RJD’s Refuse to Collaborate
Instead of entering another party and their influenced votes into their alliance, RJD rejected AIMIM’s proposal. There can be various reasons for this decision. The biggest reason is RJD’s traditional Muslim-Yadav (MY) equation. This is the party’s basis of political strength.
A large part of the Muslim population in Seemanchal region has been RJD voters. However, AIMIM’s growing popularity is a threat to this vote bank. It is especially popular among Muslim youth. RJD fears that by including AIMIM in the alliance, its vote bank may permanently shift towards AIMIM.
Further, RJD and Congress have previously accused AIMIM of being ‘BJP’s B-team’ and dividing secular votes to benefit the NDA. AIMIM has repeatedly rejected this allegation. RJD wants to maintain this narrative. They believe this helps ensure that Muslim voters do not lose faith in the grand alliance.
Rashtriya Janata Dal MP Manoj Jha made a statement in subtle words. He said that ‘sometimes not contesting elections also serves a bigger purpose’. This statement indicates that RDJ wants to keep AIMIM out of the equation. He aims to ensure that secular votes do not get scattered.
RJD spokesperson Mrityunjay Tiwari also reiterated the allegation of AIMIM being ‘BJP’s B-team’. This reiteration makes it clear that RJD is looking at AIMIM as a political rival and not as an ally.
The Impact on Bihar Politics
This recent development could significantly impact politics in Bihar. It is particularly relevant in Seemanchal’s four districts: Araria, Katihar, Purnia, and Kishanganj. In these areas, Muslims form a large part of the population.
If AIMIM does not join the Mahagathbandhan, it will contest alone. Then, the Muslim votes are bound to be divided. This division could be beneficial for the NDA. AIMIM had secured 14.28% vote share in the Seemanchal region in 2020. This time it is planning to contest more than 50 seats. This would harm the Mahagathbandhan, especially the RJD, weakening its vote bank in Seemanchal.
At the same time, if RJD includes AIMIM in the alliance, it will have to divide the seats. This division may not be acceptable to other allies like Congress and Left parties. AIMIM demands 20-25 seats while RJD is ready to give a maximum of 10 seats. The difference of opinion could cause internal tussle even if the two sides become allies.
Furthermore, the increasing presence of AIMIM is notable. Its stronghold on young voters may pose a long-term challenge for the others. This will occur if things continue in a positive way for Owaisi’s party.
The results of these developments will only be revealed during the elections. One thing is for sure, the political competition will be tough in Seemanchal.
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