Israel must neutralise the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant to dismantle Iran’s nuclear programme. This plant is a critical and highly fortified Iranian nuclear facility. But Israel’s own arsenal lacks the conventional ordnance capable of destroying Fordow. Despite recent Israeli airstrikes targeting Fordow, the facility remains operational and undamaged. Mostly due to its underground location and robust defenses, including surface-to-air missile systems deployed by Iran and Russia.
Instead, the destruction of the facility will require multiple strikes. These will use the US GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP). This is a 30,000-pound bunker-buster bomb delivered by US B-2 stealth bombers. A report by The Guardian claimed that the US military has reservations regarding the success of using a bunker-buster bomb. Two defense officials were reportedly briefed that only a tactical nuclear weapon could reach the facility.
What if US backs out?
President Donald Trump has been briefed extensively on the risks and benefits of attacking Fordow. He recognizes that disabling this facility is essential. This action is crucial to prevent Iran from producing nuclear weapons in a short timeframe.
However, he has not made a final decision on joining Israel’s ongoing air campaign against Iran’s nuclear sites. Instead, he is opting to wait up to two weeks. He wants to see if diplomatic negotiations with Tehran might succeed in halting Iran’s nuclear program.
If, after two weeks, Trump decides not to launch a strike, Israel might have only one option to destroy the facility. That option is going nuclear.
Also read: Israel-Iran Tensions Escalate: Trump warns Khamenei
Will Israel go it alone?
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made it clear that Israel will not wait for US approval. There is no need for a “green light” to continue its campaign against Iran’s nuclear facilities.
In a rare Hebrew-language interview, Netanyahu declared that Israel is fully committed to hitting all Iranian nuclear sites, including Fordow. He asserted that Israel has the capability to do so independently.
If President Trump decides not to join Israel in military strikes against Iran within the next two weeks, it is plausible that Tel Aviv might escalate its tactics. Israel might choose to act alone.
Are nukes on the table?
The possibility that Israel might use a low-yield nuclear weapon has been a topic of speculation. Such a weapon could destroy the Fordow facility. This is due to the difficulty of striking such a deeply buried site with conventional weapons.
Netanyahu has not explicitly confirmed the use of nuclear weapons. However, his statements suggest a readiness to use advanced measures. He mentioned Israel’s capability to destroy all nuclear sites.
Netanyahu has not explicitly confirmed the use of nuclear weapons. His statements about Israel’s capability to destroy all nuclear sites indicate a readiness to deploy advanced measures. These measures might be extreme, if necessary.
Heather Williams is the director of the Project on Nuclear Issues. She is also a senior fellow in the Defense and Security Department at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. She has said that Israel might not have the conventional ordnance to destroy Fordow. However, it is believed to have the nuclear capability to do so.
“Numerous Israeli leaders have stated that Israel will not be the first to introduce nuclear weapons to the region. PM Yitzhak Rabin said this in 1987. Netanyahu has repeated this statement. But if Israel did have low-yield nuclear weapons, these could deliver the necessary firepower to destroy Fordow. For example, the US GBU-57 has a yield of approximately the equivalent of 2 tons of TNT. In comparison, the lowest yield nuclear weapon was the US Davy Crockett. It had a yield of approximately 10 tons.”
Williams further said that if Israel strongly hinted at considering the use of a nuke to take out the Fordow facility, it might be substantial. Such a hint could be enough to coerce Iran. It might make them back down and return to negotiations.
What is the Fordow facility?
Fordow is located near Qom, about 30 kilometers northeast of the city. It is built deep inside a mountain. The facility is estimated to be 80 to 90 meters underground. This depth and the facility’s hardened construction make it resistant to conventional aerial attacks. It withstands most bunker-buster bombs currently available to Israel.
The Fordow facility spans approximately 54,000 square feet and houses around 3,000 centrifuges. It is unique in Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has detected uranium particles enriched to near weapons-grade levels only at this site. Iran has enriched uranium there up to 60 percent, with reports of uranium enriched as high as 83.7 percent, which is close to weapons-grade purity.
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