President Trump is not known for meetings with Army Chiefs or Field Marshals. However, in an unprecedented move, he invited Pakistan army chief Asim Munir for a White House lunch on Wednesday. Munir is on a five-day trip to the US.
Recent Change in Ties
After Joe Biden calling Pakistan “one of the most dangerous nations” and Trump, in his last term, calling it out for terrorism, he is now switching gears. Earlier this year, he credited Pakistan with apprehending the perpetrators of the Abbey Gate Bombing at Kabul Airport in 2021. Notably, the US also tried to mediate a ceasefire in the recent India- Pakistan conflict or Operation Sindoor. While Trump said the reason for the meeting was to thank Munir for defusing tensions with India, speculation is rife about the real reasons for this unpublicised meeting.
Pakistan has also offered a trade deal with no tariffs to the US, offering rare earth minerals and crypto. The US is a key player in the IMF, which had cleared a $1 billion loan to Pakistan on May 9, during Operation Sindoor. As to why Trump met Munir instead of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, it is because the army remains Pakistan’s most powerful institution.
There are clear indications that US-Pak ties are resetting, and the theorised implications and reasons are many.
History of relationship
The US-Pakistan relationship goes way back. After gaining Independence in 1947, Pakistan had aligned with Washington during the Cold War. After the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979, Pakistan collaborated with the US to support the Mujahideen that eventually forced Moscow to pull out its troops. Pakistan backed the US “war on terror”. After 9/11 attack, allowing them bases, territory, and logistics for overflights, refuelling, and drone attacks.
But when Osama Bin Laden, the architect of the 9/11 attacks was found in Pakistan, the relationship waned. They have only grown colder since 2021. When the Taliban returned to power and Pakistan increasingly turned towards China, which is not a welcome sign for America. Unlike China, whose help comes with conditions applied, the US is also known for its policy of freebies, which Pakistan may welcome.
The Middle East Conflict
There are heightened tensions in the Middle East, with the ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel since 13th June. While the Israeli offensive targeted Iranian generals, missile bases, nuclear facilities and scientists, Iran has responded with missile and drone attacks. Israel, led by Benjamin Netanyahu, has been urging the US to aid it in the offensive against Iran. It has been confirmed that Trump and Munir exchanged views on this conflict as well.
Pakistan figures into the plot since it shares a 900 km border with Iran. If the US plans to jump into the conflict, Pakistan’s compliance- for its airspace and its intelligence- will be most useful. To defang Iran’s nuclear weapon sites, which are nestled deep in Zagros and Elbrus mountains. Otherwise, Iran is sure to resort to nuclear weapons in its war. While this is the US’s military objective, its political objective for Iran remains to change the Khomeini-Islamic regime, which will take more time and effort and is not being actively pursued.
Effect on India-US ties
The meeting between Trump and Munir has generated negative sentiments in India but does not equalise tensions in India’s relationship with America. The facts are laid clear- both nations are close to a trade deal, relations in the defence sector are good, vis-a-vis QUAD are good.
All in all, India-US relations will not take a turn for the worse and remain well.
It is clear that the US is looking to deepen its influence in Pakistan once more, and this may be seen as monetary incentives, defence cooperation or initiatives like a fund for counter terrorism, but we can only assume so much when covert meetings take public involvement out of the picture- something the Pakistani people will surely not be happy about.
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